Varsity - BHS vs Eastside Catholic 9-12-25

Bellevue 5-2 EC

2nd min 1-0 Saleen PK
36th min 1-1 EC Freekick
43rd min 1-2 EC goal
52nd min 2-2 Saleen PK
54th min 3-2 Raina (Saleen)
70th min 4-2 Paris (Saleen)
76th min 5-2 Ava (Raina)
 
20-5, 4-1.  
 
Those were the numbers my college soccer coach wrote on a white-board in our locker-room before the first game of my sophomore season. With no explanation. Did it mean that our #20 needed to mark their #5, or that our #1 goalkeeper needed to be aware of their #4 from the left? Or was there something special about the 20th minute, when we would shift into a back 5 defensive formation? 
 
And then our coach explained the challenge that the numbers represented: if across the entire regular season, if our team averaged 20 shots per game while allowing only 5 against, and earn 4 corners versus 1 for our opponents...then we'd win a lot of games and be in a position to achieve something special. We would trust the win probabilities that come from a big statistical advantage.   
 
Yes, I'm aware that is obvious. And there is a bit of "tail wagging dog" focusing on the statistics rather than the underlying performance that generates those statistics, but for our particular team it crystallized our mission: generate offense as often as we could (20 shots per game is A LOT!), and do whatever it took to prevent shots from the other team (blocks!, swarming D, strong tackles, etc.). What happened is that our team came together and worked very very hard at both ends of the pitch to satisfy some random numbers on a pre-season white board (all the way to a #1 ranking and run into the NCAA final...). 
 
Our statistics from our game versus Eastside Catholic: 19 - 2 shots and 4 - 1 corners (Bellevue - EC). That is directionally correct. And when combined with our Sehome and Shorewood games, we stand at 18.6 - 4.0 shots, and 2.3 - 1.3 corners (Bellevue - opponents). Again, directionally correct. Now, of course, good statistics doesn't always mean good play (wasteful shots from 40yds still count as a shot, but might be a terrible soccer decision...), but it is encouraging that this very young Bellevue roster is beginning to play some entertaining and positive soccer. And the statistics support this narrative. Long may it continue.
 
Our actual game started brightly. In just the 2nd minute, Saleen intercepted a wayward EC clearance and dribbled into the box, where she was promptly fouled. PK. And Saleen calmly passed the ball into the net for a 1-0 early Bellevue lead. And it seemed that more goals were just a matter of time. We controlled tempo, we controlled possession, we played excellent team defense...what we didn't do is score any more goals despite launching another 10 shots in the half (white board target achieved, actual outcome not-so-much). Instead, with just a few minutes remaining in the half, Eastside Catholic earned a free kick 30 yards from our goal. Their midfielder sent EC's first shot of the game towards our goal...and..it hit the upper corner of the net. Excellent strike. And despite an overwhelming statistical advantage for our Wolverines, the scoreboard was 1-1 at halftime.  
 
And it got worse from there. In the first three minutes of the second half, EC scored another stylish goal as their left winger wiggled through our defense and cut back a cross that the right winger smashed home from a nearly impossible angle. Great goal and 1-2 EC (despite an enormous statistical advantage for the Wolverines...see, statistics aren't everything...or...just wait for a few paragraphs for the probabilities to resolve a bit..). The goal revitalized the Crusaders, and they raced around with increased energy and belief. But we kept our heads and continued to play well, confidently maintaining possession across our back line, using Katelyn's feet, and then linking well with our midfield and attacking players. We were playing well. And in the 52nd minute, we got our reward: Ava sent an excellent direct ball upfield behind the EC defense, and Mack gave chase. It looked like the EC goalkeeper would narrowly beat Mack to the ball just inside her penalty box, which she did, but the trailing defender needlessly cut across Mack's sprint, her elbow getting higher than she probably intended, and Mack hit the ground just in front of the goalie, who had already scooped up the loose ball. To the referee's credit, he had sprinted to keep up with play, and was only a few yards away when the wayward elbow was deployed. Whistle. PK. Was it soft? During the run-of-play I thought so, but the slow-mo of the video clearly showed the defender's elbow get too high as she made her challenge, and the proximity of the referee meant only one conclusion: PK Bellevue, and a 2-2 scoreline as Saleen calmly dispatched the ball into the back of the net. Game on. 
 
Two minutes later, we had recaptured the lead and momentum. Saleen chased hard after a rare give-away, won the ball back, bolo'd her defender (flick on one side, run past on the other...or a "body meg") and lashed a low, hard shot that ricocheted off the far post and was smashed home by Raina, who was wisely supporting the play. 3-2 Bellevue. In the 70th minute, it was four, as Nora found Saleen on the right wing with a clever entry pass, Saleen quick-fired a shot that the goalkeeper could only parry back into the danger zone...where Paris gladly finished for a 4-2 Bellevue lead. Just a few minutes later in the 75th minute, Emerson won the ball in our defensive third, found Saleen in space at midfield, and our junior Captain sent a scrumptious outside-of-the-foot curling pass towards our right wing and a sprinting Raina. Raina crossed, and the keeper could only deflect the ball back into the mixer where Ava was waiting to half-volley into the open net for a 5-2 advantage. Well-earned goal by our freshman midfielder who had seemingly covered every blade of plastic grass during the full 80 minutes. Fitting that she would score after making a 60yard sprint into the box to support Raina's fast-break and cross. Final Score.  
 
And now the statistics make sense? To paraphrase the White Stripes (ask your parents), you can't take the effect and make it the cause, but the statistics do tell a compelling story. One which we hope to repeat often this season.   
 
Next up: a rematch on Tuesday at Bellevue Stadium with the defending 3A State Champions from Seattle Prep. Last season, our non-conference game ended in a balanced 0-0 draw. They are an excellent program with an experienced coach and team. Seattle Prep will be a very good test before we begin Kingco play at Mt. Si on Thursday. 
 
We'll crunch the numbers afterwards and see where we stand.